40k-metrics: Putting Crowe Through the Paces

So let’s take about Grey Knights and the 40kmetrics system.  There are a dozen different GK lists that all seem reasonably competitive, so it seems like a fairly balanced codex that ought to be able to stand toe to toe with other decent lists.

Time to put my Crowe/Purifier list through the ringer.  But first some predictions.  I haven’t done the breakdown yet, so these predictions are based on what I expect after playing bunches of games with them and how I “feel” the strengths and weaknesses are.

1.  I expect that I will shoot infantry equal to or slightly better than the Space Wolves list.  Massed Str 5 is going to be superior to massed Str 4, but I have fewer bodies so it should roughly equal out.

2.  I expect that my Rhino penetrating ability will be roughly equal to them.  The Psyflemen will roughly equal the long fangs, and my psycannons will do a decent job of equaling the special weapons.  They might even be superior.

3.  Due to having the same number of attacks as Grey Hunters, but carrying power weapons, it would be reasonable presume I’m going to outscore them in close combat.  I’m assuming that my 10 man squads are firing off Hammerhand, and that my 5 man squads are using Cleansing Flame since it mathhammers better vs. 10 MEQ opponents that way.  I’m also assuming that Crowe is base to base with 5 MEQ opponents since that is the most who can be b2b with him and we will use that number for mathhammer potential with Sword Storm.  He will use Cleansing Flame since he automatically wounds on 4+ anyway, assuming 10 enemies. 

4.  Being that my list has no melta and no-AP1, I’m going to wager that my AV14 potential is pretty darn low.  I do us my Hammer-handed Daemonhammers for Land Raider killing duty, so they will count for that category.  Not the best solution for Land Raiders, but I have used it and would do it again if needed.

So what do the results bear out?

Crowe 2.0	DMS	DMCC	DRPG	DLRPG	Notes
Crowe	0.28	3.86	0.00	0.00
10x Purifiers	4.52	8.99	8.72	7.79	2 Hammers, Psybolt, Rhino
10x Purifiers	4.52	8.99	8.72	7.79	2 Hammers, Psybolt, Rhino
10x Purifiers	4.52	8.99	8.72	7.79	2 Hammers, Psybolt, Rhino
5x Purifiers	2.08	4.40	1.74	0.00
5x Purifiers	2.08	4.40	1.74	0.00
Psybolterback	0.75	0.00	0.45	0.00
Psybolterback	0.75	0.00	0.45	0.00
3x Psyfleman	2.98	1.27	26.65	0.00
Totals:	22.48	40.90	57.19	23.37

The results are, thankfully, in the same ball park as competitive lists. 

1.  As I predicted, my anti-meq shooting ability is slightly greater than the NOVA winners.  What does this tell us?  That if possible, I want to reduce the game to a 24” standoff where we shoot the piss out of each other for as long as possible.  But my advantage isn’t that great over them, so this isn’t a perfect path to victory.

2.  My close combat potential is far superior to the MEQ lists.  This is a good thing only if investing that many points into CC doesn’t water down my shooting to dangerously low levels.   The fact that my CC numbers are so advantaged doesn’t mean I should rush headlong into combat, obviously.  But it does mean one thing: if they rush in headlong to fight me, they will lose.  They have to beat me with shooting.  And in that regard our anti-infantry potential is closely matched. 

3.  Dead Rhinos.  My numbers are slightly below Tony and Stelek’s totals.  But the overall number is close enough that it doesn’t matter much.  What is a problem is how the strength of my list is distributed.  The Psyflemen represent nearly half of my anti-light mech potential for the whole list, but only represent around 1/7^th of the points.  That means they are carrying an awful lot of weight.  If I was being honest with myself, I would say that this is dangerously close to a single point of failure and a good opponent would know this, and be able to exploit it.  So that is a concern, but let me repeat, my goal isn’t to win the NOVA.  My real goal is to go 4-4.  If I leave with a 50% win ratio I’ll be happy.  I don’t want to put the pressure on myself to say that I have to go 8-0 or it is failure.  That wouldn’t make for a fun weekend of gaming.

4.  Anti-AV14 was a shock.  I am about as far above them in this category as I am behind them in the light mech category.  A couple caveats before I get happy: while people still show up to tournaments with Land Raiders and Leman Russes, they aren’t exactly common either.  I look at anti-heavy mech as a category that doesn’t win you games by being good at, but can certainly lose you games by being bad at.  Also, a significant portion of my anti-heavy mech potential is CC based, so it isn’t as reliable as Melta is for the Blood Angels or Wolves.

Thoughts:  Pretty much confirmed what I supposed, namely that the list has the tools to win games, but a lot of its potential is tied into a handful of units.  That’s going to be the case for any non-MSU list.  A good opponent is going to use proper target priority skills to do his best to mitigate the strengths of your more important units.  That’s just the inherent advantage every MSU list has over non-MSU lists and not this one in particular.  I suspect, in many cases my games against competitive lists will come down to their ability to get penetrating hits against my Dreads at 48”.  My goal is a 50% win rate, and I can safely say, from a list perspective, that it has the tools to do that and this breakdown showed that at very least isn’t particularly gimped.  I guess we can say that it passes the proof of concept stage.