40k-metrics: The Anatomy of Non-Competitive Lists Part One

Over the next few days I'm going to post the breakdowns for lists that went 0-4 at NOVA.  I want to make one thing perfectly clear: I am not posting these to make fun of them, or the owner.  It is plainly obvious that some of these lists were not intended to be competitive, as they have strong fluff based themes.  The owners probably didn't intend to win the tournament with them, and I'm going to malign them for not achieving that goal.  For all we know, they DID achieve their goals for the tournament.  They got to roll dice, meet people, and have a great time.

But we can learn something from them.  All the lists we have broken down thus far have been competitive lists and we have seen the scores that they generated.  I've always suggest that those lists will have a lot in common, and they do.  But we need to put them side by side with non-competitive lists to actually show this.

The first list I'm going to breakdown is a Tyranid list.  Lyracian posted a breakdown of competitive Tyranid lists that are more than capable of going toe to toe with modern 5th Edition net-lists.  We'll see how they stack up.

Here is the 0-4 list...

2000 Points Tyranids

HQ
Hive Tyrant - Armored Shell, Preferred Enemy, Stranglethorn Cannon, Implant Attack, Leech Essence, Paroxysm - 270
3 x Tyrant Guard w/ Lash Whips - 195

Troop
Tervigon - Adrenal Glands, Toxin Sacs, Regeneration, Cluster Spines, Dominion, Onslaught - 225
16 x Hormagaunt - Adrenal Glands, Toxin Sacs - 160
16 x Devil-Gaunt - Devourers - 160
16 x Devil-Gaunt - Devourers - 160

Heavy
Trygon Prime - 240
Tyrannofex - Rupture Cannon, Cluster Spines, Desiccator Larvae, Regeneration - 295
Tyrannofex - Rupture Cannon, Cluster Spines, Dessicator Larvae, Regeneration - 295

From a basic standpoint most of us can see an immediate problem: no Elites.  Competitive Tyranids live and die by the massive anti-tank capabilities of their Elites slot.  This list wants to win by the Tyrant death star smashing across the board and killing everything.  Results being what they are, we know it didn't do it.

Let's see the scores...

Nids!	DMS	DMCC	DRPG	DLRPG	Notes
Hive Tyrant	2.06	4.52	6.00	6.75	Preferred enemy, stranglethorn cannon, implant attack, leech essence, paroxysm
Tyrant Guard (3)	0.00	2.33	4.80	0.00	Lash Whips
Tervigon	1.09	1.85	3.30	2.00	AG, Toxin, Regen, clusterspins, dominion, onslaught
16 Hormagaunt	0.00	6.93	0.00	0.00	AG, Toxin
16 Devil Gaunts	4.00	2.64	0.00	0.00	devourers
16 Devil Gaunts	4.00	2.64	0.00	0.00	devourers
Trygon Prime	1.31	6.01	15.00
Tyrannofex	2.49	1.70	4.25	1.65	Rupture cannon, clusterspines, dessicator larvae
Tyrannofex	2.49	1.70	4.25	1.65	Rupture cannon, clusterspines, dessicator larvae
Totals:	17.44	30.32	37.60	12.05

So to sum up...

DMS: 17.44

DMCC: 30.32

DRPG: 37.60

DLRG: 12.05

These scores look low.  Let's see it against Jay Woodcock's 2k list...

DMS: 15.78

DMCC: 63.75

DRPG: 94.85

DLRG: 13.51

Pretty striking, eh?  So why did this list go 0-4?  And what can Tyranid players learn from both these lists?


1.  Neither list can shoot down MEQ.  This is the Tyranid codex.  That's just how it is.  Tyranids have to kill things in close combat to win.  Shooting won't shift infantry for them.  Much like a Tau list shouldn't plan on winning games by killing infantry in combat, Nids shouldn't even try to build a list to shoot down marines.


2.  Jay's list shreds marines in close combat.  The Fex-star list also shreds marines in combat.  The 0-4 list does not.  So we stumble upon Fatal Flaw #1.  It can't shoot infantry.  And it doesn't CC infantry, either.  Not being able to kill infantry somehow is a Fatal Flaw in list-building.


3.  Anti-tank.  Tyranids don't like AV14.  They will struggle against it no matter what.  Luckily, the top tables of tournaments don't have tons of AV14.  So this weakness is somewhat covered by the meta-game.  If AV14 makes a comeback in 6th Edition it could be a problem, but for now it's not a concern.  What matters in 5th is building a list that can kill light mech reliably.  Tyranids can do this with shooting and CC with no problem as the various lists Lyracian has broken down.  The 0-4 NOVA list, unfortunately was not designed with this in mind.  Fatal Flaw #2: inability to kill light mech.  This is a death blow to a competitive list.


So as we can see, there are two major issues that keep this list from being competitive.  As we proceed with the 0-4 lists, you'll see these themes repeated.  We all already knew good lists kill light mech and kill infantry and bad lists don't.  My hope was that this metric system would validate that and provide meaningful numbers.  And so far, it does. 


Comments?  Questions?