40k-metrics: The Anatomy of Non-Competitive Lists Part Two

In part one of this series I looked at a Tyranid list that had a lot of big, scary monsters but didn’t have the basic tools to be a competitive 5^th Edition list.  Comparing it to the undefeated lists we say that it came up significantly short in infantry killing ability, and also had only about half the anti-light mech score one would expect after being familiar with the scores of the unbeaten lists.

It's still all about the numbers.

In today’s installment, we will be looking at a list that was clearly built around a strong, fluffy theme.  Since that was clearly the player’s intentions we have to label his effort a success in that regard.  But with that said, the list didn’t win any of its matches and there are specific reasons for that.  I’d like to point out that you can have a fluffy list that also wins games, but you have to remember 5^th Edition fundamentals: killing light mech at range and killing infantry.

The list…

2000 Points Chaos Space Marines

HQ
Daemon Prince w/ Wings, Mark of Tzeentch, Warptime, Wind of Chaos - 205
Ahriman - 250

Troop
9 x Thousand Sons Chaos Space Marines - Sorceror w/ Gift of Chaos - 274
9 x Thousand Sons Chaos Space Marines - Sorceror w/ Gift of Chaos - 274
9 x Thousand Sons Chaos Space Marines - Sorceror w/ Gift of Chaos - 274

Heavy Support
Chaos Land Raider w/ Daemonic Possession - 240
Chaos Land Raider w/ Daemonic Possession - 240
Chaos Land Raider w/ Daemonic Possession – 240

So 1k Sons with lot’s of points spent on HQ units and Land Raiders and only 3 scoring units.  I think most players will be able to look at the list and come up with several weaknesses without me breaking down the numbers, but the point of the exercise is showing it in numbers…

	DMS	DMCC	DRPG	DLRPG	Notes
Daemon Prince	2.5	3.91	7.50	2.00	Warptime, Winds of Chaos
Ahriman	2.5	3.66	2.13	0.00
9x Thousand Sons	5.94	2.32	0.00	0.00	Sorcerer
9x Thousand Sons	5.94	2.32	0.00	0.00	Sorcerer
9x Thousand Sons	5.94	2.32	0.00	0.00	Sorcerer
Land Raider	1.93	0	5.80	1.41	Daemon Possession
Land Raider	1.93	0	5.80	1.41	Daemon Possession
Land Raider	1.93	0	5.80	1.41	Daemon Possession
Total:	28.61	14.53	27.03	6.23

On the bright side, the list can shoot away marines at similar rates to competitive lists.  That’s basically where it comes to an end, though. 

Besides the two HQ units, there is nothing that is going to shift infantry in close combat, unfortunately.  And one Daemon Prince in the open isn’t going to last long, even with a 4+ Invulnerable save. 

The anti-light mech punch is also vastly inadequate.  We have seen competitive lists scoring three times higher, and that’s on the lower end of the competitive spectrum.  And of the anti-light mech capabilities that the list does have, 2/3rds of it is represented by only 3 Land Raiders.  The anti-AV14 ability is about 1/3^rd of the score we are used to seeing from competitive lists, which is a serious problem as well.

Without dwelling too long, we can see that even with the best general at the helm, this list would struggle to win games.  It simply didn’t have enough offensive tools in terms of quantity and quality at its disposal to do what 5^th Edition requires: kill light mech, and kill infantry.

From the standpoint of the metric system as a whole, we can see more and more how competitive lists and non-competitive lists look.  My worry at the outset of all this was that competitive and non-competitive lists would look the same since, hey, 2,000 points is 2,000 points and the lists would score the same.  But what we are starting to see, and I can assure you now that we will continue to see, is that my original thesis that started all of this (that 4 categories I measure correlate to wins) is a fairly reliable way to measure an a list.  

Please do not interpret this to mean that generalship means nothing.  I think we can all agree it matters MORE than the list in the end.  But even the best driver in the world won't win an F-1 race in a 1997 Toyota Tercel.