40k-metrics: A Foot List Approaches

Kirby was kind enough to point out to me that a proven GT caliber foot list does in fact exist.  Chumbalaya played a Loganwing foot list at NOVA to a 3-1 finish, making the elimination rounds.  So now we can see how a good foot list will do compared to the mech lists we've done so far.

From Bald and Screaming

Previously, I have discussed how my expectation is that foot lists will score very well on this metric.  They sacrifice defense and mobility that mech lists have for sheer firepower.  Sometimes this trade off is worth it, and sometimes it isn't.  Now looking at Chumby's list we can see that a lot of his anti-tank capabilities are close combat based, much like Dash's Orks.  We can presume, then, that the CC anti-tank scores will be similar.  The list has no melta weapons at all, but uses chainfists to fulfill the role that melta plays in mech lists.

A few other assumptions I made when preparing this breakdown was that Logan would give himself Preferred Enemy every turn in combat.  I also assumed Logan will sit with the LC/HB Long Fangs and give them Tank Hunters since that maximizes the list's anti-tank capabilities.  Let's check it out.

Chumby DMS DMCC DRPG DLRPG Notes Logan 0.29 4.51 15.00 3.17   Rune Priest 0.83 1.32 3.80 0.00 Living Lightning Lone Wolf 0.00 1.28 7.28 4.50 Chainfist Lone Wolf 0.00 1.28 6.38 0.00 TH 10 WG 4.42 5.35 6.60 0.00 2 CML 5 WG 2.21 2.68 10.58 4.50 CML Chainfist 5 WG 2.21 2.68 10.58 4.50 CML Chainfist 5 WG 2.21 2.68 10.58 4.50 CML Chainfist 3 Thunderwolves 0.00 6.38 15.00 12.37 3 PF 6 LF 2.41 1.48 10.36 2.18 2 LC, 3 HB 5 LF 2.25 1.24 6.60 0.00 4 Missiles 5 LF 2.25 1.24 6.60 0.00 4 Missiles                     Totals: 19.08 32.12 109.36 35.72

And so what surprises were there?

Dead MEQ Shooting:  By far the weakest category in the list.  Not surprising given the lack of special weapons and not too many torrent weapons.  But you can also see how irrelevant it is to his success.  If he has you out of your boxes, he already won because now you're on even footing with him, and he has more bodies.  So he is more than willing to trade anti-meq shooting for better anti-mech and better CC.

Dead MEQ CC:  A very strong result for the list.  It's midway between the MEQ SW lists and Dash's Orks.  Which is exactly what you'd expect.  If he can de-mech a competitive mech list early, his advantage in close combat will be very telling.  

anti-light mech:  The highest score of the bunch, as we would expect.  For starters, we predicted that foot lists would score higher across the board, but in this list in particular it HAS to de-mech you early in order to do it's damage.  Therefore, he has the most anti-light armor capability of all the lists we looked at.

anti-heavy mech: His score is almost identical to the Blood Angel list.  Whereas the BA list overloads with melta, he is bringing chainfists, Str 10 power fists, and Tank Hunting Lascannons.  Same result from opposite types of units.

My thoughts: The scores were actually a lot closer to the other lists than expected.  In every category except anti-infantry shooting, his scores were as high or higher than the best scores of the 4 unbeaten NOVA lists we looked at.  And his anti-light mech far exceeded even that.  

So we learn two things from this:

1.  If you're going to trade away mobility and defense (mech) for more firepower, you need to make sure you're trading it for the right kind of firepower.  Had he traded away mech for anti-MEQ firepower and didn't bring nearly as much anti-light armor it would be easy to predict how his tournament results would be.  So if you play a foot list your scores HAVE to be high.  If you're going foot and not gaining statistical firepower advantages you're doing something way wrong.

2.  Not all foot lists are the same.  I have to imagine a foot guard list of similar competitiveness would have very different scores.  It would have much higher shooting capabilities and much lower CC abilitys, but I would guess that the anti-tank would be similar.  Except instead of killing de-mech infantry in CC, it's scores would indicate a predilection for shooting them.  I would have to assume the aggregate scores would be similar, just moved around in different columns.

Thoughts?  Questions?