40k-metrics: The Anatomy of Non-Competitive Lists Part Three

Hey all, sorry about the delay in pushing the rest of this series out, but I’m working on it!  In part one we looked at a Tyranid list whose offensive ability was very limited.  In part two we looked at a fluffy Thousand Sons list that struggled largely due to its inability to kill enemy vehicles.  In part three, we will look at a World Eaters list that also has a strong fluff basis, but seems to acknowledge that it needs some shooting so it does make some concessions in that regard.

 First the list…

2000 Points Chaos Space Marines

HQ
Kharn the Betrayer - 165
Daemon Prince w/ Wings, Mark of Khorne - 140

Elite
4 x Terminators w/ Lightning Claws, Icon of Khorne - 190
Dedicated Chaos Land Raider w/ Daemonic Possession - 240
Dreadnought w/ Additional Close Combat Weapon w/ Twin-Linked Bolter - 100

Troop
6 x Khorne Berzerkers w/ Skull Champion, Power Fist, Personal Icon, Rhino - 206
6 x Khorne Berzerkers w/ Skull Champion, Power Fist,  Rhino - 201
6 x Khorne Berzerkers w/ Skull Champion, Power Fist,  Rhino - 201
5 x Summoned Lesser Daemon - 65
5 x Summoned Lesser Daemon - 65

Heavy Support
3 x Obliterators - 225
Predator w/ Heavy Bolters - 100
Predator w/ Heavy Bolters – 100

Just looking at the list, we can guess it will have very competitive close combat potential, but probably won’t shoot too well.  That is, after all, what you’d expect a World Eater’s list to do.

Let’s see what the numbers show…

World Eaters	DMS	DMCC	DRPG	DLRPG	Notes
Kharne	0.11	5.06	15.00	11.90
Prince	0.00	2.61	9.00	5.40
6x Berserkers	0.65	5.13	0.00	0.00	Fist
6x Berserkers	0.65	5.13	0.00	0.00	Fist
6x Berserkers	0.65	5.13	0.00	0.00	Fist
5x Lesser Daemons	0.00	1.23	0.00	0.00
5x Lesser Daemons	0.00	1.23	0.00	0.00
3x Oblits	7.65	3.82	9.30	6.00
2x Predator	1.60	0.00	2.18	0.00	Dakka
4x Terminators	0.00	7.50	0.00	0.00	Khorne, TLC
Land Raider	1.27	0.00	5.00	1.13	Possession
Dreadnought	0.00	1.70	5.00	3.30	2x CCW
Totals:	12.58	38.54	45.48	27.73

Pretty much what you might have guessed.

It can’t shoot infantry.  Some might say, “that’s OK because at least it can kill them in CC!”  Which works until such time as it doesn’t.  If your anti-infantry plan is to bully people in close combat, it will eventually fail when you run into a list that CC’s better than you.  Even with Furious Charge, a marine stat line and Grey Knight’s point cost will eventually run into an enemy you can’t beat in CC.  At that point, you become the gunline.  Better hope you have a gunline.  Unfortunately, this list doesn’t.  Fatal flaw #1.

It can CC.  The CC score is definitely in the more than adequate range for competitive lists.  But 5^th Edition is largely dominated by mech lists.  You might be excellent at killing men in combat, but to get them in combat you have to blow up their ride.  About that…

The World Eaters only score about half of what we would expect a mech marine list to be able to do in terms of anti-light mech.  This is fatal flaw #2.  A CC list has to be in CC quickly, to avoid being shot to death.  To get into CC quickly, you have to knock out transports quickly.  This list just doesn’t have that ability.  The three Obliterators do a fine job, but 3 of them are not sufficient to the job.  The Daemon Prince and the Dreadnought also have decent scores, but based entirely off of close combat.  The slow Dreadnought and lightly armored Prince are fire magnets and will have a tough time ever doing that job.  But the biggest problem of all is a codex flaw… Berserkers don’t carry melta weapons.  If those three Berserker units each had 2 meltaguns it would bring the score to nearly respectable in that regard.  As is, there is just no substitute for it.

The heavy mech score is actually pretty good, mostly because of the heavy hitting power of the Prince and Dreadnought.  Those are both CC solutions and clearly on the risky side of the gamble.

In summary, this list went 0-4 because it couldn’t kill light mech and couldn’t deal with infantry.  Are you getting a sense of Déjà vu?  I feel like a broken record, but it’s pretty clear by now what it takes to be a competitive 5^th edition list: being able to kill infantry (CC or Shooting or both) and also being able kill swathes of light mech.  All the winning lists score well in those categories.  All the lists that struggled have done poorly.  Granted, it’s not the largest sample size to draw a 100% conclusion from but we are already seeing what I hypothesized.  Namely, that the good lists would share common traits and the bad lists would also share common traits.

40k-metrics: The Anatomy of Non-Competitive Lists Part Two

In part one of this series I looked at a Tyranid list that had a lot of big, scary monsters but didn’t have the basic tools to be a competitive 5^th Edition list.  Comparing it to the undefeated lists we say that it came up significantly short in infantry killing ability, and also had only about half the anti-light mech score one would expect after being familiar with the scores of the unbeaten lists.

It's still all about the numbers.

In today’s installment, we will be looking at a list that was clearly built around a strong, fluffy theme.  Since that was clearly the player’s intentions we have to label his effort a success in that regard.  But with that said, the list didn’t win any of its matches and there are specific reasons for that.  I’d like to point out that you can have a fluffy list that also wins games, but you have to remember 5^th Edition fundamentals: killing light mech at range and killing infantry.

The list…

2000 Points Chaos Space Marines

HQ
Daemon Prince w/ Wings, Mark of Tzeentch, Warptime, Wind of Chaos - 205
Ahriman - 250

Troop
9 x Thousand Sons Chaos Space Marines - Sorceror w/ Gift of Chaos - 274
9 x Thousand Sons Chaos Space Marines - Sorceror w/ Gift of Chaos - 274
9 x Thousand Sons Chaos Space Marines - Sorceror w/ Gift of Chaos - 274

Heavy Support
Chaos Land Raider w/ Daemonic Possession - 240
Chaos Land Raider w/ Daemonic Possession - 240
Chaos Land Raider w/ Daemonic Possession – 240

So 1k Sons with lot’s of points spent on HQ units and Land Raiders and only 3 scoring units.  I think most players will be able to look at the list and come up with several weaknesses without me breaking down the numbers, but the point of the exercise is showing it in numbers…

	DMS	DMCC	DRPG	DLRPG	Notes
Daemon Prince	2.5	3.91	7.50	2.00	Warptime, Winds of Chaos
Ahriman	2.5	3.66	2.13	0.00
9x Thousand Sons	5.94	2.32	0.00	0.00	Sorcerer
9x Thousand Sons	5.94	2.32	0.00	0.00	Sorcerer
9x Thousand Sons	5.94	2.32	0.00	0.00	Sorcerer
Land Raider	1.93	0	5.80	1.41	Daemon Possession
Land Raider	1.93	0	5.80	1.41	Daemon Possession
Land Raider	1.93	0	5.80	1.41	Daemon Possession
Total:	28.61	14.53	27.03	6.23

On the bright side, the list can shoot away marines at similar rates to competitive lists.  That’s basically where it comes to an end, though. 

Besides the two HQ units, there is nothing that is going to shift infantry in close combat, unfortunately.  And one Daemon Prince in the open isn’t going to last long, even with a 4+ Invulnerable save. 

The anti-light mech punch is also vastly inadequate.  We have seen competitive lists scoring three times higher, and that’s on the lower end of the competitive spectrum.  And of the anti-light mech capabilities that the list does have, 2/3rds of it is represented by only 3 Land Raiders.  The anti-AV14 ability is about 1/3^rd of the score we are used to seeing from competitive lists, which is a serious problem as well.

Without dwelling too long, we can see that even with the best general at the helm, this list would struggle to win games.  It simply didn’t have enough offensive tools in terms of quantity and quality at its disposal to do what 5^th Edition requires: kill light mech, and kill infantry.

From the standpoint of the metric system as a whole, we can see more and more how competitive lists and non-competitive lists look.  My worry at the outset of all this was that competitive and non-competitive lists would look the same since, hey, 2,000 points is 2,000 points and the lists would score the same.  But what we are starting to see, and I can assure you now that we will continue to see, is that my original thesis that started all of this (that 4 categories I measure correlate to wins) is a fairly reliable way to measure an a list.  

Please do not interpret this to mean that generalship means nothing.  I think we can all agree it matters MORE than the list in the end.  But even the best driver in the world won't win an F-1 race in a 1997 Toyota Tercel. 

40k-metrics: The Anatomy of Non-Competitive Lists Part One

Over the next few days I'm going to post the breakdowns for lists that went 0-4 at NOVA.  I want to make one thing perfectly clear: I am not posting these to make fun of them, or the owner.  It is plainly obvious that some of these lists were not intended to be competitive, as they have strong fluff based themes.  The owners probably didn't intend to win the tournament with them, and I'm going to malign them for not achieving that goal.  For all we know, they DID achieve their goals for the tournament.  They got to roll dice, meet people, and have a great time.

But we can learn something from them.  All the lists we have broken down thus far have been competitive lists and we have seen the scores that they generated.  I've always suggest that those lists will have a lot in common, and they do.  But we need to put them side by side with non-competitive lists to actually show this.

The first list I'm going to breakdown is a Tyranid list.  Lyracian posted a breakdown of competitive Tyranid lists that are more than capable of going toe to toe with modern 5th Edition net-lists.  We'll see how they stack up.

Here is the 0-4 list...

2000 Points Tyranids

HQ
Hive Tyrant - Armored Shell, Preferred Enemy, Stranglethorn Cannon, Implant Attack, Leech Essence, Paroxysm - 270
3 x Tyrant Guard w/ Lash Whips - 195

Troop
Tervigon - Adrenal Glands, Toxin Sacs, Regeneration, Cluster Spines, Dominion, Onslaught - 225
16 x Hormagaunt - Adrenal Glands, Toxin Sacs - 160
16 x Devil-Gaunt - Devourers - 160
16 x Devil-Gaunt - Devourers - 160

Heavy
Trygon Prime - 240
Tyrannofex - Rupture Cannon, Cluster Spines, Desiccator Larvae, Regeneration - 295
Tyrannofex - Rupture Cannon, Cluster Spines, Dessicator Larvae, Regeneration - 295

From a basic standpoint most of us can see an immediate problem: no Elites.  Competitive Tyranids live and die by the massive anti-tank capabilities of their Elites slot.  This list wants to win by the Tyrant death star smashing across the board and killing everything.  Results being what they are, we know it didn't do it.

Let's see the scores...

Nids!	DMS	DMCC	DRPG	DLRPG	Notes
Hive Tyrant	2.06	4.52	6.00	6.75	Preferred enemy, stranglethorn cannon, implant attack, leech essence, paroxysm
Tyrant Guard (3)	0.00	2.33	4.80	0.00	Lash Whips
Tervigon	1.09	1.85	3.30	2.00	AG, Toxin, Regen, clusterspins, dominion, onslaught
16 Hormagaunt	0.00	6.93	0.00	0.00	AG, Toxin
16 Devil Gaunts	4.00	2.64	0.00	0.00	devourers
16 Devil Gaunts	4.00	2.64	0.00	0.00	devourers
Trygon Prime	1.31	6.01	15.00
Tyrannofex	2.49	1.70	4.25	1.65	Rupture cannon, clusterspines, dessicator larvae
Tyrannofex	2.49	1.70	4.25	1.65	Rupture cannon, clusterspines, dessicator larvae
Totals:	17.44	30.32	37.60	12.05

So to sum up...

DMS: 17.44

DMCC: 30.32

DRPG: 37.60

DLRG: 12.05

These scores look low.  Let's see it against Jay Woodcock's 2k list...

DMS: 15.78

DMCC: 63.75

DRPG: 94.85

DLRG: 13.51

Pretty striking, eh?  So why did this list go 0-4?  And what can Tyranid players learn from both these lists?


1.  Neither list can shoot down MEQ.  This is the Tyranid codex.  That's just how it is.  Tyranids have to kill things in close combat to win.  Shooting won't shift infantry for them.  Much like a Tau list shouldn't plan on winning games by killing infantry in combat, Nids shouldn't even try to build a list to shoot down marines.


2.  Jay's list shreds marines in close combat.  The Fex-star list also shreds marines in combat.  The 0-4 list does not.  So we stumble upon Fatal Flaw #1.  It can't shoot infantry.  And it doesn't CC infantry, either.  Not being able to kill infantry somehow is a Fatal Flaw in list-building.


3.  Anti-tank.  Tyranids don't like AV14.  They will struggle against it no matter what.  Luckily, the top tables of tournaments don't have tons of AV14.  So this weakness is somewhat covered by the meta-game.  If AV14 makes a comeback in 6th Edition it could be a problem, but for now it's not a concern.  What matters in 5th is building a list that can kill light mech reliably.  Tyranids can do this with shooting and CC with no problem as the various lists Lyracian has broken down.  The 0-4 NOVA list, unfortunately was not designed with this in mind.  Fatal Flaw #2: inability to kill light mech.  This is a death blow to a competitive list.


So as we can see, there are two major issues that keep this list from being competitive.  As we proceed with the 0-4 lists, you'll see these themes repeated.  We all already knew good lists kill light mech and kill infantry and bad lists don't.  My hope was that this metric system would validate that and provide meaningful numbers.  And so far, it does. 


Comments?  Questions?