Thursday, July 7, 2011

40k-metrics: The Anatomy of Non-Competitive Lists Conclusion


Thank you all again for bearing with me for how long it took to crank out those 0-4 lists and get them published.  Before we close the book on this series I’d like to sum up some observations about how to build a non-competitive list.  These are definite pitfalls that we can see most of those lists falling into, and even competitive minded players can make similar mistakes.



1.  Grossly inefficient units.  Godhammer Landraiders are the epitome of this pitfall.  They cost over 250 points and have very weak offensive scores.  Simply put, take the scores the Godhammer makes divided by the points and you’ll see it simply isn’t an efficient way to kill… anything.  You might argue that its offensive scores aren’t what we buy it for; players remark all the time they are more scared of what’s inside the Raider than the Raider.  This only has some validity if what is inside is really a rock unit that can win games.  9 Thousand Sons are not such a unit.  Heck, even 5 Khornate DLC terminators aren’t a good rock since they can’t really take out every unit reliably like TH/SS can.

Simply put, if you tie up too many of your points into too many units that do too little offensively, you won’t be able to shift your opponent or kill vital units when necessary.  Everyone already knew this, I suppose, but now that we have real world competitive tournament proof that this is so.  This is no longer 40k theory, it’s 40k fact.

2.  HQ insanity.  One thing all of these lists had in common: they spent tons of points on HQ units that did relatively little for their list.  Marneus Calgar, random Daemon Princes, and Ahriman are just not good uses of points.  Fluffy perhaps, but not competitive.  Look at the scores for the HQ units in these lists.  Not bad individually, but not good for the points.  This touches on #1 again, but Marneus Calgar does not kill models by the bucketful.  He is the Land Raider Godhammer of HQ choices.

HQ units, to be efficient, have to do one or more of the following things to be a good use of the points:

  • Provide a meaningful FoC change.  SM Captain on Bike, Belial, Master of the Forge, Coteaz, Ork Warboss/Big Mek, Logan, and so on.  These are all HQ units that open up the FoC in a way that allows you to get more offensive potency out of other slots of your FoC.  The extra offensive mileage you can squeeze out of your FoC is measurable, as we now know, and the points efficiency of these HQs are measurable as a result.

  • Provide an army-wide buff.  Vulkan is the prime example.  Emperor’s Champion is also good at this.  Even a Librarian with a ‘hood qualifies.  Essentially, their point is not to be killy themselves, it’s to make the rest of your army more killy.  If you total up the extra offensive scores Vulkan generates for a well built list, you would see that he provides significant points efficiency.

  • Killy and/or cheap.  Haemonculi are dirt cheap and are killy and can make specific units extra killy.  Guard CCS are relatively cheap, killy and can buff the army.  You CAN bring a dedicated killy HQ is cheap enough to be efficient.  Tyranid Primes are excellent for this very reason.  They don’t do much for you other than kill stuff in CC real well, but they don’t cost you an arm and a leg either.

There is a reason most competitive 2k armies bring only 1 HQ, and it’s simple points efficiency.  You get more killing power point for point out of your Elites and Heavy support than you get from your HQ.  There are exceptions, and those exceptions are the HQ choices people actually take in competitive lists.

3.  Non-covered flaws.  It would probably be a disaster to bring a list that was equally suited to shooting infantry, killing infantry in CC, killing light mech, and killing heavy mech all at the same time.  Based on all the analysis I’ve seen, you can’t win consistently that way.  You have to have an edge and use it.  This is a Moneyball concept.  In baseball, a general manager might say this guy can hit well, but he is slow.  Speed doesn’t matter if you play the game in a way that doesn’t require good foot speed to win!  The general manager would be able to hire a player who hits well for cheaper than his faster, but equally good hitting counterpart.  And if foot speed is irrelevant, that GM just scored majorly.

The concept works well in 40k.  You don’t need every unit to smash AV14.  You can tune your list so that you have just enough to deal with AV14 and the points you save by skimping on AV14 can go directly to being stronger in more important areas.  The Tau are the absolute masters of this.  They don’t have access to units that can kick ass in close combat.  Rather than try to bring CC units and fail, they build lists that win without CC.  You don’t need to fight in CC if you can kill transports at range, and so they don’t because they do.  What you see in the unsuccessful lists a lot of times is an inability to cover their weaknesses.  Sure, you CAN get away with skimping on infantry shooting ability.  But you have to cover that weakness by killing infantry in close combat and/or being really good at killing light mech.  The failure of the non-competitive lists isn’t that they are particularly weak at any particular thing; it’s that they don’t compensate for that weakness with other strengths. 

4.  Light mech.  This is the one area you can’t skimp on.  You can be weak at killing heavy mech and compensate in other places.  You can suck at shooting infantry or CCing infantry as long as you do other things well which hide that weakness.  But there are no examples of a list which struggles mightily against light mech and still can dominate a tournament.  Even Tyranids, probably the 5th Edition codex which has the most innate difficulty against light mech, does everything it can to kill light mech, even taking units that in a vacuum are pretty bad just to be better at that one, crucial ability.  If you take away any lesson from the less competitive list analysis it is make sure your list can kill light light mech like a champ and the game will get a lot easier for you.  Or ignore that advice and struggle to pull out wins even against poor generals.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

40k-metrics: The Anatomy of Non-Competitive Lists Part Four


The last of the 0-4 lists, finally.  These lists have been fairly interesting in terms of how they compare to the 4-0 lists.  I think most people would not have predicted that the 0-4 lists would have been as far in terms of scores from the 4-0 lists.  Heck, before I even started this whole metric project I assumed that most lists were essentially the same at any points level.  It was only once I started doing the good lists and seeing how different they were amongst themselves that I started to hypothesize that the uncompetitive lists would look very different.

But today’s list emphasizes the point that looks can be deceiving.  On paper, this list doesn’t look that poor.  Sure, it has some obvious inefficiencies that could be tweaked to make it better, but all in all at first glance you think “pretty ordinary mech marine list.”


2000 Points Space Marines

HQ
Marneus Calgar - 250
Pedro Cantor - 175

Elite
7 x Sternguard w/ 2 Combi-Melta, Heavy Flamer, Rhino - 230
7 x Sternguard w/ 3 Combi-Melta, Heavy Flamer, Rhino - 235

Troop
10 x Tactical Marines w/ Meltagun, Multi-Melta, Powerfist/Combi-Melta, Rhino - 245
10 x Tactical Marines w/ Meltagun, Multi-Melta, Powerfist/Combi-Melta, Rhino - 245
5 x Tactical Marines w/ Plasmaback - 165
5 x Tactical Marines w/ Plasmaback - 165

Fast Attack
Land Speeder w/ Typhoon Missile Launcher - 90

Heavy Support
Thunderfire Cannon - 100
Thunderfire Cannon – 100

So the first things we notice as weaknesses are Calgar and Thunderfires.  450 points is nearly 1/5th of the list in 3 units that aren’t considered terribly competitive.  One could only wonder how much higher the list would score if the Thunderfires and Calgar were traded for 3 Dakka Preds and 2 more Typhoons or 3x Rifleman Dreds. 

But as constituted, we have a very shooty leaning mech marine list.  Let’s see how the sucker scores…

Mech Marines
DMS
DMCC
DRPG
DLRPG
Notes
Calgar
1.28
3.91
0.00
0.00
Power armor
Pedro
0.56
2.80
0.00
0.00

7x Stern Guard
3.53
2.31
1.89
1.20
Rhino, 3x combi-melta, heavy flamer
7x Stern Guard
3.53
1.73
1.24
0.79
Rhino, 2x combi-melta, heavy flamer
10x Tac
3.18
2.73
6.82
4.36
melta, combi-melta, fist, multi-melta, Rhino
10x Tac
3.18
2.73
6.82
4.36
melta, combi-melta, fist, multi-melta, Rhino
5x Tac
1.09
0.83
0.00
0.00

5x Tac
1.09
0.83
0.00
0.00

Plasmaback
2.06
0.00
5.08
0.52

Plasmaback
2.06
0.00
5.08
0.52

Typhoon
2.00
0.00
3.30
0.00

2x Thunderfires
13.46
0.00
9.60
0.00

Totals:
37.02
17.86
39.83
11.75


Pretty abysmal compared to competitive mech lists we’ve looked at.  Obvious weaknesses that are revealed from the metric…

1.  Only two units that are a serious threat to AV14.  This in and of itself isn’t a game break, because as we have seen, the one place you can skimp and get away with it is anti-AV14.  However, if you are weak on AV14 and weak in other places it paints a pretty complete picture.

2.  The anti-light mech is very low compared to competitive lists.  Most of the mech-marine lists of various flavors in the competitive bracket have scored in the 60’s or higher.  It’s too early in this process to say a list can’t win with a score below 50, but it’s really starting to look like it. 

3.  Can’t fight in CC.  Even with Pedro and Calgar sitting in a unit of Sternguard, this isn’t a list that can fight in CC.  A fair size unit of Genestealers can eat that super unit for breakfast in CC and then move on.  This is a list that HAS to kill you at range, yet it doesn’t have the firepower to kill mech at range.  You can’t both suck at CC and suck at killing mech at range.  That is a Fatal Flaw.

4.  Hey it can shoot infantry dead!  But it can’t get infantry out of their boxes.  As the Thousand Sons list showed, killing infantry with shooting by itself can’t win games.  You need the anti-mech and/or CC component to make that effective.

Unlike the 1k Sons list, this one has potential to be competitive with a few tweaks. 

-Calgar
-2x Thunderfire
+2x lascannons per Sternguard squad
+3x Rifleman Dreads
+1 Typhoon Landspeeder
+2x combi-flamers on plasmaback sarges

Those changes would go a super long way towards getting some wins.

Thursday, June 30, 2011

40k-metrics: The Anatomy of Non-Competitive Lists Part Three

Hey all, sorry about the delay in pushing the rest of this series out, but I’m working on it!  In part one we looked at a Tyranid list whose offensive ability was very limited.  In part two we looked at a fluffy Thousand Sons list that struggled largely due to its inability to kill enemy vehicles.  In part three, we will look at a World Eaters list that also has a strong fluff basis, but seems to acknowledge that it needs some shooting so it does make some concessions in that regard.


 First the list…

2000 Points Chaos Space Marines

HQ
Kharn the Betrayer - 165
Daemon Prince w/ Wings, Mark of Khorne - 140

Elite
4 x Terminators w/ Lightning Claws, Icon of Khorne - 190
Dedicated Chaos Land Raider w/ Daemonic Possession - 240
Dreadnought w/ Additional Close Combat Weapon w/ Twin-Linked Bolter - 100

Troop
6 x Khorne Berzerkers w/ Skull Champion, Power Fist, Personal Icon, Rhino - 206
6 x Khorne Berzerkers w/ Skull Champion, Power Fist,  Rhino - 201
6 x Khorne Berzerkers w/ Skull Champion, Power Fist,  Rhino - 201
5 x Summoned Lesser Daemon - 65
5 x Summoned Lesser Daemon - 65

Heavy Support
3 x Obliterators - 225
Predator w/ Heavy Bolters - 100
Predator w/ Heavy Bolters – 100

Just looking at the list, we can guess it will have very competitive close combat potential, but probably won’t shoot too well.  That is, after all, what you’d expect a World Eater’s list to do.

Let’s see what the numbers show…

World Eaters
DMS
DMCC
DRPG
DLRPG
Notes
Kharne
0.11
5.06
15.00
11.90

Prince
0.00
2.61
9.00
5.40

6x Berserkers
0.65
5.13
0.00
0.00
Fist
6x Berserkers
0.65
5.13
0.00
0.00
Fist
6x Berserkers
0.65
5.13
0.00
0.00
Fist
5x Lesser Daemons
0.00
1.23
0.00
0.00

5x Lesser Daemons
0.00
1.23
0.00
0.00

3x Oblits
7.65
3.82
9.30
6.00

2x Predator
1.60
0.00
2.18
0.00
Dakka
4x Terminators
0.00
7.50
0.00
0.00
Khorne, TLC
Land Raider
1.27
0.00
5.00
1.13
Possession
Dreadnought
0.00
1.70
5.00
3.30
2x CCW


















Totals:
12.58
38.54
45.48
27.73


Pretty much what you might have guessed.

It can’t shoot infantry.  Some might say, “that’s OK because at least it can kill them in CC!”  Which works until such time as it doesn’t.  If your anti-infantry plan is to bully people in close combat, it will eventually fail when you run into a list that CC’s better than you.  Even with Furious Charge, a marine stat line and Grey Knight’s point cost will eventually run into an enemy you can’t beat in CC.  At that point, you become the gunline.  Better hope you have a gunline.  Unfortunately, this list doesn’t.  Fatal flaw #1.

It can CC.  The CC score is definitely in the more than adequate range for competitive lists.  But 5th Edition is largely dominated by mech lists.  You might be excellent at killing men in combat, but to get them in combat you have to blow up their ride.  About that…

The World Eaters only score about half of what we would expect a mech marine list to be able to do in terms of anti-light mech.  This is fatal flaw #2.  A CC list has to be in CC quickly, to avoid being shot to death.  To get into CC quickly, you have to knock out transports quickly.  This list just doesn’t have that ability.  The three Obliterators do a fine job, but 3 of them are not sufficient to the job.  The Daemon Prince and the Dreadnought also have decent scores, but based entirely off of close combat.  The slow Dreadnought and lightly armored Prince are fire magnets and will have a tough time ever doing that job.  But the biggest problem of all is a codex flaw… Berserkers don’t carry melta weapons.  If those three Berserker units each had 2 meltaguns it would bring the score to nearly respectable in that regard.  As is, there is just no substitute for it.

The heavy mech score is actually pretty good, mostly because of the heavy hitting power of the Prince and Dreadnought.  Those are both CC solutions and clearly on the risky side of the gamble.

In summary, this list went 0-4 because it couldn’t kill light mech and couldn’t deal with infantry.  Are you getting a sense of Déjà vu?  I feel like a broken record, but it’s pretty clear by now what it takes to be a competitive 5th edition list: being able to kill infantry (CC or Shooting or both) and also being able kill swathes of light mech.  All the winning lists score well in those categories.  All the lists that struggled have done poorly.  Granted, it’s not the largest sample size to draw a 100% conclusion from but we are already seeing what I hypothesized.  Namely, that the good lists would share common traits and the bad lists would also share common traits.