Tuesday, March 27, 2012

40k Theory: Going For the Throat


I’ve written before about one of the most important things you can do in 40k is finishing off an opponent while you have momentum.  Often you will have a great first two turns where your shooting is red hot and you kill half the opponent’s army without taking casualties in return, only to have the opponent hang around and eventually the game ends up very close at the end.  The goal in a competitive situation should be to turn those strong starts into tablings, and not have them end in games that are down to a single die roll on turn 7.

This is common advice.  I’ve written about, and so has everyone else.  But how do you actually make it happen?  Not too many people discuss that part, which is, incidentally, the hard part.

In my experience, there are two methods you can utilize to finish off a cripple opponent and maintain momentum: close combat and low AP and anti-cover shooting.  Let’s discuss each…

Close Combat

Waaaaaaay back in the day, I wrote about my rather average ‘Ard Boyz semi-finals results which stemmed from using a list that was all shooting and no close combat.  I remarked about how I would alpha strike, kill ½ of my opponent’s list and then watch as his second half slowly grinded back to even out the game.  I decided from that point forward, I wouldn’t play any lists that didn’t have at least marginal CC ability.  Even in my current 2k BT list I have two units of terminators, which are not good CC units in a vacuum, but they aren’t bad at finishing off crippled combat squads.

In any event, you can use close combat ability to finish off a crippled foe.  Close combat is weaker than shooting in 5th Edition 40k, we all know that.  But it has some things going for it that make it very good for our purposes today.  First, we can assume that if you had a smashingly good first few turns your opponent is de-meched.  An all foot opponent makes close combat units far more effective.  Second, close combat ignores cover.  This is huge.

Cover is why shooty lists have difficulty beating crippled opponents.  Turn one, demech unit, and then kill 40% of them.  Second turn, they go to ground in cover and you only kill one of them, and realize it’s not profitable to continue shooting them.  Unfortunately, that unit isn’t dead.  That unit is alive, in cover and probably near an objective or at least worth a kill point.  If you ignore then, you’re just making the end game a lot more in doubt as the opponent still has a unit hanging around to trouble you on objectives or not contribute a kill point/VP.    So ignoring them is bad.  However, also bad is realizing how much firepower you have to pour into a unit of 5 IG vets with 3++ cover saves to finish them.  It’s an annoyingly high amount of dakka.  By using so much fire on a crappy 5 guardsmen, you might be ignoring more valuable intact opposing units.
A close combat unit or two advancing into the opponent’s backfield can solve this dilemma.  They can charge in, wipe the unit out, and move onto another one next turn.  Unlike shooting, they have a level of inevitability and reduce the variance of cover saves.  By having a few close combat units doing your clean up, your shooty units (most of your army) can continue to shoot at high priority, profitable targets.  This is an often overlooked synergy.  By not shooting at inefficient targets (because your CC units are savaging them) your shooty units get to shoot more optimally.  The end result is your entire army performs more optimally and you don’t lose the valuable momentum you’ve gained in the early turns.

Low AP/Anti-cover shooting

This is a lesson that seasoned Tau players can teach everyone.  Tau don’t have close combat units that can finish off opponents’ crippled units.  So what do Tau generals do?  Plasma, missile pods, and Marker Lights (to reduce cover).

Most non-Tau, non-IG players consider Plasma and Flamer units “bad.”  Mostly because they don’t shoot down vehicles.  But what good is a lascannon when you’re shooting at 5 Guardsmen in cover?  Not too much.  It’s not even so hot at shooting at 5 marines outside of cover.

I’m not advocating anything approaching a 50/50 split between anti-tank/anti-infantry firepower.  In fact, I’d argue that the role of anti-infantry firepower should be similar to close combat units in shooty lists, one or two units that are either dedicated to that task, or at least can be pressed into it when circumstances are favorable.  One or two dedicated plasma/flamer units per army isn’t too terrible of a sacrifice of points, and most importantly, anything you “lose” in points by buying them you could potentially gain back by allowing your anti-tank units to fire optimally.  If you have plasma units, you don’t have to waste a lascannon shot on 5 marines, the lascannon can continue to shoot at vehicles.  Optimal shooting maintains momentum.  Sub-optimal shooting is how you lose it. 

If there is a single lesson to take away from all this, it’s consider bringing one or two ‘finisher’ units so that your mainline units can continue their tasks optimally.  The mainline units will give you the momentum, and you don’t want to give your opponent a way back into the game by playing loose and wasting your shots on sub-optimal plays in the mid-game.

Thoughts?  Comments?  Questions?

Monday, March 19, 2012

Better Playtesting: The Fallacy of Bad Match-Ups


While playtesting we learn a lot about our lists.  We learn what strengths it has, what weaknesses it has, and most importantly, how it plays against opposing lists and codices.

Unfortunately, that last part is a gigantic potential stumbling block.   Why, you ask?

Practice makes perfect
Let’s assume that you play 20 playtest games with your Vanilla Marines against a gauntlet Space Wolves list.  You go 8-12.  This is bad news.  There are a few things you can conclude from this playtesting…

1.  Perhaps your list is bad.  This is possible.  However, if other folks have had great success with very similar lists, or if your list trounces other gauntlet lists, this probably isn’t true.  This is especially the case if you’re experienced and you understand how to build a competitive list.

2.  Perhaps Space Wolves are a bad match up.  It could very well be the case that the peculiar aspects of Spaces Wolves units and rules are such that they have an inherent advantage over a particular codex that is very difficult to overcome.  Again this is possible, but among two 5th Edition books (besides Nids) the results shouldn’t be so pronounced that you lose 60% of the time with a tuned list against a stock list.  My personal feeling is that two equal players with two modern codices, one playing a tuned list and the other a stock list should be at worst 50/50 even in a ‘bad matchup.’  I don’t have any statistics to back that up, just a gut reaction.

3.  Perhaps your playtest partner is a better player than you.  This is unlikely to be true unless your other gauntlet match ups go similarly.  If that is the case, there really isn’t a mystery anymore.

4.  You play the match up incorrectly.  Now this is interesting and gets to the crux of the matter.  The key lesson to take from playtesting is to understand the key aspects of the match up, so that when you are faced with the match up in a tournament, you have a plan for victory.

Let’s say you play the supposed 20 playtest games, and that it just so happened that in all your wins, you got early pressure on his Long Fangs while in your losses you got no pressure on his Long Fangs and they went to town.  It is highly likely that early pressure may be the key to the match up in that case.  For the purposes of this example, let’s say that Long Fang pressure is the key.  After identifying that, you play another 20 playtest games.  Suddenly, instead of going 8-12, you go 15-5.  Congratulations, you “solved” the match up.  Now repeat the same formula for every other list in your gauntlet and proceed to kick ass at your next tourney.

Obviously, it will rarely be so simple, and the solution will rarely produce such a wild swing in results.  Most often it won’t be one thing that you have to change to win, it will be several things that you have to do differently to pull the nose up.  So it can be rather hard to do in practice and requires a lot of time spent playing, which is a definite grind.

But the rewards are there.  Imagine our hypothetical playtesters never considered option 4.  Imagine that, instead, they decided (incorrectly as it were in our example) that option 1 or 2 was true.  They would have either radically altered the list in order to try to improve one particular match up (which may hurt them against other lists by unbalancing their list) or they may have abandoned the list and army entirely.  That would be quite a shame to abandon a viable army which you like simply because you failed to identify a simple play change.

What should you take away from this?  Primarily that the solution to a bad match up in playtesting is often solvable by changing your approach to the game, rather than changing your list.  It requires a lot of time and effort to get the answers 100% right, but if you’re committing to scientific playtesting you’re ostensibly doing it because you’re willing to put in work to get results.  Lastly, even in abbreviated playtesting with a small sample size of matches you can learn valuable information about how to approach a particular match up so long as you carefully (and unemotionally) analyze the games you do play.  Happy playtesting!

Thoughts?  Comments?  Questions?

Thursday, March 15, 2012

My Current Lists: Dark Elves 3,000


Grand Armies are a strange beast.  The game clearly breaks down at 3,000 points.  You have enough points to comfortably bring two Lord level wizards without taking anything away from the nuts and bolts of your list.  If you have an army book capable of generating additional power dice to satisfy the needs to two wizard lords the game can get really nutty really quickly.  All the things people commonly cite for why Fantasy is non-competitive and bad are mostly untrue… until you hit 3,000 points.  At 3,000 almost all the complaints are quite founded.

But alas, ‘Ard Boyz is played at this absurd points level for some reason and thus once (hopefully twice!) a year I’m forced to play a 3,000 point army.  Here is my current list for this non-sense.

My Dreadlord hates Grand Armies

Lords

Supreme Sorceress
-Lore of Shadow
-Level 4
-Focus Familiar
-Talisman of Preservation
-Dark Steed
=360

Supreme Sorceress
-Lore of Metal
-Level 4
-Pendant of Khaleth
-Dark Steed
=325

[At this points level and with Power of Darkness, not bringing SS would be purposefully gimping my list.  Thanks to PoD, DE magic scales with the points level whereas most other books get weaker.  At lower points levels I can use Focus Familiar and Dark Steed to keep the caster safe.  At this dumb points level I need real wards to make me feel better about their safety.  Additionally, at lower points levels, magic isn’t as important to the list’s success, whereas it is vital at this level, so the wards are like an insurance policy for the list.]

Heroes

Master
-BSB
-Cold One Chariot
-Armor of Eternal Servatude
-Dragonbane Gem
-Halberd
-Shield
-Sea Dragon Cloak
=245

[Same loadout as the 2.5k build, except better because I have even more scary big stuff to keep him as a lesser target.]

Core

11x Repeater Crossbowmen
-Shield
-Standard
-Musician
=136

11x Repeater Crossbowmen
-Shield
-Standard
-Musician
=136

10x Repeater Crossbowmen
-Shield
-Standard
-Musician
=125


6x Dark Riders
-Musician
-Repeater Crossbows
=139

5x Dark Riders
-Musician
-Repeater Crossbows
=117

5x Dark Riders
-Musician
-Repeater Crossbows
=117

[The core is superfluous, as in the 2.5k list.  The Xbowmen sit back and on the flanks to keep faster enemy units from flanking the monsters.  The Dark Steeds use the vanguard redeployment trick, and they give 4++ LOS saves to your Sorceresses, and they are decent harassers in a pinch.  They are much more fragile at this points level, though, so I gave the Sorceresses wards because I place little trust in the Look Out Sir! save being there on turn 2+]

Special

Cold One Chariot
=100

Cold One Chariot
=100

Cold One Chariot
=100

Cold One Chariot
=100

Cold One Chariot
=100

Cold One Chariot
=100


[Three basic chariots are tough to kill at 2.5k for a lot of lists.  Adding three more is bad beats for the opponent.  You actually run into problems of not having enough space to deploy them all, having difficulty wheeling/maneuvering, and arranging multi-charges with 7 CoK on the board all nearby each other.  Of all the problems to have, having too much of a good thing is one I’ll settle for.]

Rare

War Hydra
=175

War Hydra
=175

War Hydra
=175

War Hydra
=175


[Other than a lucky as hell Purple Sun, I’m not sure of many ways people have to kill four Hydras before they get a chance to impact combat.  They are simply nuts.]

Total: 3,000

This list is well rounded with excellent magic, and has amazing combat capability.  The biggest weakness is against large blocks of ranked infantry, but I mitigate that as best I can with Shadow Magic.  My local meta is mostly elite armies and deathstars, and not many horde lists so I feel this is an acceptable trade off.  Your local mileage may vary on that.

Thoughts?  Comments?  Questions?

Monday, March 12, 2012

My Current Lists: Dark Elves 2,500


Switching gears to Warhammer Fantasy, here is my 2,500 point Dark Elves list.  I’ve long professed my love of Dark Elf chariot spam, so this list should come as no surprise to anybody.



Lords

Dreadlord
-Dark Pegasus
-Pendant of Kaleth
-Crown of Command
-Whip of Agony
-mundane armor kit
=300

[This guy is growing on me so much.  He is great at harassing the enemy backlines and warmachines and magic bunkers.  He is also amazing at shutting down enemy death stars.  I haven’t faced an opponent in a really long time who didn’t have something in his list that this guy was able to exploit effectively.]

Supreme Sorceress
-Lore of Shadow
-Level 4
-Focus Familiar
-Dark Steed
=315

[Between the Focus Familiar and Dark Steed the chances of ever being exposed to enemy charges or shooting is slim to none.  With those problems solved, you can proceed with totally raping the enemy with Lore of Shadow and Power of the Darkness.]

Heroes

Master
-BSB
-Cold One Chariot
-Armor of Eternal Servatude
-Dragonbane Gem
-Halberd
-Shield
-Sea Dragon Cloak
=245

[Many people think a BSB on the chariot is dumb.  Normally it is.  This guy isn’t super afraid of enemy shooting thanks to 4+ regeneration and 2++ Fire Ward.  Plus, this list has so many ‘big’ threats that if he focuses fire on this guy, chances are he won’t be killing the rest of the list in any time.]

Master
-Cold One Chariot
-Relic Sword
-Mundane armor kit
=190

[Cheap as hell master who exists to +1 the chariot count in the list.]

Sorceress
-Lore of Metal
-Level 2
-Dark Steed
-Tome of Furion
=162

[Lore of metal has some great spells that compliment the army nicely.  No matter what three spells you roll, chances are you’ll get something useful.]

Core

12x Repeater Crossbowmen
-Shield
-Standard
-Musician
=142

12x Repeater Crossbowmen
-Shield
-Standard
-Musician
=142

5x Dark Riders
-Musician
-Repeater Crossbows
=117

5x Dark Riders
-Musician
-Repeater Crossbows
=117

5x Dark Riders
-Musician
-Repeater Crossbows
=117

[The core is superfluous.  The Xbowmen sit back and on the flanks to keep faster enemy units from flanking the monsters.  The Dark Steeds use the vanguard redeployment trick, and they give 4++ LOS saves to your Sorceresses, and they are decent harassers in a pinch.  People say they are fragile and die easily.  I agree, and I don’t care.  They are not integral to the overall success of the army, but they do compliment it.]

Special

Cold One Chariot
=100

Cold One Chariot
=100

Cold One Chariot
=100

[These guys are tough, hard to kill and have a lot of hitting power.  They are the hammer of the list.  If all three of them multi-charge an enemy, no much can survive that.]

Rare

War Hydra
=175

War Hydra
=175

[And ofcourse these are the anvil (but also a hammer when needed) for the list.  They are also tough and also hard to kill and also have nuts offensive ability.  Hydras don’t need much explanation to veteran Fantasy players.]

Total: 2,497

I’ve spoke at length as to how the army operates, so there isn’t really much need to rehash it here.  This list scales down to 2,000 very well, which is great.  And as you’ll see, it scales up to 3k pretty well too.

Thoughts?  Comments?  Questions?

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

My Current Lists: Grey Knights 1,750


I usually play 40k at 2,000 and above, but I have been known to dip down in the dark waters of 1,750 on occasion.  Since Black Templars are my go-to army when I play 2k, I typically tend to use my Grey Knights at lower point levels using my Crowe/Purifier list.  What I found from playing this list at 2,000 was I had a strong core of 1,750, with 250 points of mediocre stuff tacked on that didn’t mesh with the rest of the list.  It occurred to me, why not play the list at 1,750 and have a robust list you’re happy with?

This list isn’t going to shock anybody with its creativity and definitely would make the people who hate ‘spam’ lists cringe.  Good, fuck those people.

Pew pew!  Pyscannons!

HQ

Castellan Crowe
=150

[Nobody is ever happy paying points for this guy, but I played him in my NOVA list and he didn’t once die the whole tournament.  I typically keep him in reserve and use him attacking off the board edge on enemy units that advance to my back lines.  He isn’t great, but you do with him whatever you can to get value.]

Heavy Support

Dreadnaught
-2x Autocannons
-Psybolt Ammo
=135

Dreadnaught
-2x Autocannons
-Psybolt Ammo
=135

Dreadnaught
-2x Autocannons
-Psybolt Ammo
=135

[These are very awesome at 2k points.  They are even more awesome at 1,750 where your opponent has 250 less points to shoot at them with.  These need no explanation or defense.]

Troops

5x Purifiers
-2x Psycannon
-2x Halberds
-1x Daemon Hammer
-Rhino
=199

5x Purifiers
-2x Psycannon
-2x Halberds
-1x Daemon Hammer
-Rhino
=199

5x Purifiers
-2x Psycannon
-2x Halberds
-1x Daemon Hammer
-Rhino
=199

5x Purifiers
-2x Psycannon
-2x Halberds
-1x Daemon Hammer
-Rhino
=199

5x Purifiers
-2x Psycannon
-2x Halberds
-1x Daemon Hammer
-Rhino
=199

5x Purifiers
-2x Psycannon
-2x Halberds
-1x Daemon Hammer
-Rhino
=199

[6 troops is might be overkill for most armies, but when your troops are better than most army’s Elites, they do good work.  It’s obviously very hard for your opponent to beat you in objective missions at a low point level and it won’t be easy for them to outshoot you.  I wasn’t a huge fan of the hammers, because they never seem to be worth it.  But when I don’t bring them I always regret it more than the times I wish I have 30 points for something else.]

Total: 1,749

All in all, the list has decent ranged fire, and good to superior midfield shooting.  It doesn’t have any melta which is saucy, but that’s less of a problem than it would be at higher point levels.  I played basically the same list at 2k at NOVA to a 5-3 record, and I imagine that this would be quite competitive at the 1,750 level.

Thoughts?  Comments?  Questions?

Monday, March 5, 2012

My Current Lists: Black Templars 2,000

I realized today that it's been a while since I discussed what my current lists actually look like, and I also realized I promised to do so at some point in the hazy past.  First up: my favorite 40k army, the Black Templars.  Templars as a shooty army have some well discussed advantages and I think you all know about them by now.  So without further adieu, here is what I'm currently running in NOVA-style tournaments (which are the only style tournaments really worth playing in)...

Vow to hate on dem witches
HQ-
Emperor's Champion
-Abhor
=110

[Typical choice, nothing really special.  Sits with a Terminator squad giving LD10.]

Fast Attack
Land Speeder Typhoon
=70

Land Speeder Typhoon
=70

Land Speeder Typhoon
=70

[6 missiles and 3 Heavy Bolters a turn is a decent amount of firepower for 210 points.  Finding value.]

Elites
Terminator Sword Brethren Squad
-2x Cyclone Launchers
-Tank Hunters
=265


Terminator Sword Brethren Squad
-2x Cyclone Launchers
-Tank Hunters
=265

[These guys need no explanation, they are the potatoes and the meat.]

Troops
5x Initiates
-Meltagun
-Multimelta
-Rhino
=150


5x Initiates
-Meltagun
-Multimelta
-Rhino
=150


5x Initiates
-Meltagun
-Multimelta
-Rhino
=150


5x Initiates
-Meltagun
-Multimelta
-Rhino
=150

5x Initiates
-Missile Launcher
-Plasma Gun
-Rhino
=146


5x Initiates
-Missile Launcher
-Plasma Gun
-Rhino
=146

[Six troop choices.  I see far too many Templar lists skimping on troops to buy more Land Speeders or Terminators.  I also see lots of Templar lists spending a lot on troops, but the points are going to stupid things like POTMS Razorbacks.  I brought six cheap troop choices, four melta bunkers for the midfield, and two to sit back and shoot at a distance.  With crappy troop choices you can be tempted to underinvest, but at a NOVA tournament that will cost you eventually.  But at the same time, with crappy choices you do not want to over-invest by buying bling to make them try to be a match for fully kitted out Grey Hunters or something.  Bring a lot of them, but keep them simple.]

Heavy Support
Predator Destructor
-Lascannon Sponsons
=125









Predator Destructor
-Lascannon Sponsons
=125

[In a list with 6 Rhinos and 3 Land Speeders, some AV13 to hide behind is always welcome.  Plus for the points, these throw out some strong firepower.]

Total: 1,992

There you go.  Shoot until they're dead.  Any questions or comments or suggestions on this one?

Thursday, March 1, 2012

40k Metrics: It's All About Going First

Kirby answered my call and has been releasing some excellent data from 3++ Con that has helped demystify some of the assumptions people have about the game.  Please take a moment to read over his breakdown of going first/second and then come back.


So going second doesn't have a big advantage over going first.  But going first is clearly slightly disadvantaged, even in non-objective missions?  Why?  Much like in College Football overtime, whoever goes on offense second knows exactly what they have to do.  If the first team on offense kicks a field goal, the second team knows they have to kick a field goal at least, and if they get a touchdown they win.  Their path to victory is defined.  The team who goes first has to simply do "their best" and hope it works out.  If you're going second and you know it's the last turn in WH40K you know exactly what you need to accomplish to win.  You still have to actually execute that plan, which is why there isn't a huge advantage to it, but an advantage nonetheless.

Also curious, the worse your record the more advantage there was in going first.  Kirby offers some explanations of that, but its quite possible that players of a lower playskill caliber are too linear in their thinking and forward planning to take advantage of the benefit of second turn advanced planning.  Additionally, when looking at just the winningest players' brackets, going second has a rather clear advantage.  

The sample size of one tournament is small enough to make us hesistant to draw any firm conclusions, and hopefully NOVA and Adepticon do a similar breakdown this year.  But I am pretty sure that until I see data suggesting otherwise, I am going to take the second turn as often as I can.